In the humble opinion of D-Slice, this was a terrible trade for the Padres.
Statistics of Anthony the Great
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Anthony Rizzo
Anthony Rizzo has balled it 98% of his career. The 2% of Anthony Rizzo the anti-baller occurred during his cup of coffee with the Padres in 2011. Believing there was a massive logjam at first with newly acquired slugger-great Yonder Alonso, the Pads shipped him to Hoyer and Epstein's Chicago Cubs for SP/RP Andrew Cashner. Rizzo made his Chicago debut today, and is 2-3 with more at bats to go.
In the humble opinion of D-Slice, this was a terrible trade for the Padres.
Statistics of Anthony the Great
^^^Theo Epstein breaks down the life of Anthony Rizzo^^^
In the humble opinion of D-Slice, this was a terrible trade for the Padres.
Statistics of Anthony the Great
Jesus Montero - fallen stock?
One look at Jesus Montero's numbers will leave you disappointed. In 251 at at bats, the Seattle catcher is hitting .263/.301/.406, with 8 HRs, 12 2Bs, 28 RBIs, 24 runs scored, with 60 Ks to 14 BBs. In his 66 games, he's appeared at catcher 30 games and as a DH 36 games. The 22 year old catcher has been highly regarded through each stop in the minors. According to The Baseball Cube, Montero hit .306/.364/.49 in 1,950 at bats in the minors. In his 61 at bats with the Yankees last year, Jesus excited fans with a .328/.406/.590 line with 4 HRs.
The Yankees nearly traded Montero to the Seattle Mariners in the summer of 2010, only for the Mariners to take the Texas Rangers offer instead, headlined by first baseman Justin Smoak. This past offseason, however, the M's acquired for 23 year old Michael Pineda, who went under the knife during spring training to repair his torn labrum.
According to scouts, Montero's defense has always been marginal, so his stick is what's going to keep him at the position. His offensive value will be maximized as a backstop. Stick him at first base or DH and his numbers instantly take a hit compared to the league average at each position.
Here is Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.com's take on Montero in his recent article, Jesus Montero in Context:
Considering his age, park, and position, Jesus Montero's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. However, his value in the longrun will be tied to whether he can stick at the catcher position. If he becomes a full-time DH or 1B, his value will significantly decrease.
The Yankees nearly traded Montero to the Seattle Mariners in the summer of 2010, only for the Mariners to take the Texas Rangers offer instead, headlined by first baseman Justin Smoak. This past offseason, however, the M's acquired for 23 year old Michael Pineda, who went under the knife during spring training to repair his torn labrum.
According to scouts, Montero's defense has always been marginal, so his stick is what's going to keep him at the position. His offensive value will be maximized as a backstop. Stick him at first base or DH and his numbers instantly take a hit compared to the league average at each position.
Here is Eno Sarris of FanGraphs.com's take on Montero in his recent article, Jesus Montero in Context:
"Montero’s current .146 isolated slugging percentage is worse than the numbers he put up at every stop in the minor leagues except for his first 123 plate appearances in rookie ball. He routinely put up ISOs over .200. His current 21.9% strikeout rate is worse than he put up in every stop in the minor leagues. In that context, he’s certainly not the player he was projected to be.
Montero has a double-digit swinging strike rate (12.2% this year, 12.0% career, 8.9% average this year). He hits almost a ground ball and a half for every fly ball (1.45 GB/FB ratio) and has a decent home run per fly ball rate (13.3% HR/FB) that might not actually get much better, given his history and home park. He hit more ground balls than fly balls in his minor league career, too. His BABIP (.304) is neutral, especially for a slower runner. This isn’t an article about how he’s been unlucky or just needs to pull the ball more. There’s a chance we’re looking at the true-talent Jesus Montero, or at least the 2012 version.
...
Catchers, as a group, are hitting .245/.315/.392 this season. That’s worsted only barely by second baseman (.254/318/.380) and shortstops (.257/.310/.375), but you’ll notice that for roto concerns, it’s possible that catchers are the worst offensive position in baseball. The curse of batting average, yes, but also the fact that catchers don’t usually play a full slate of games. They have fewer plate appearances than any other position, they get pinch-hit for more than anyone, and they are platooned more than any other position.
Suddenly Jesus Montero looks a lot better."
Sarris makes a great comparison to Montero's numbers compared to the league average of catchers. Furthermore, Montero is competing in 2012 as a 22 year old. The Cardinal's Yadier Molina spent 4 months of his 2005 campaign as a 22 year old, hitting .252/.295/.358. Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was in Single A when he was 22 years old. Buster Posey only collected 17 at bats with the Giants as a 22 year old in 2009, spending most the season in AA and AAA, logging a combined .326/.428/.540 line with 18 homeruns in 115 games. When Joe Mauer was 22 years old, he completed his first full season with the Twins, hitting .294/.372/.411.
In addition, Montero is playing in one of the biggest pitching parks in the MLB in Safeco Field. While Safeco Field suppresses offense, the biggest victims are right-handed hitters.Considering his age, park, and position, Jesus Montero's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. However, his value in the longrun will be tied to whether he can stick at the catcher position. If he becomes a full-time DH or 1B, his value will significantly decrease.
Monday, June 25, 2012
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