Here is my list of the top 21 prospects in the San Diego Padres system - keep in mind we had a few to prospects graduate to the MLB this past season (Casey Kelly SP, Yasmani Grandal C, Brad Boxberger RP, Joe Wieland SP):
1. Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, Opening Day Age: 24
Good bat, but take his AAA numbers with a grain of salt considering Tuscon is a launching pad. He does not have a defned position - can he handle 2B? Can he hit enough to play 3B, let alone handle it? Will GM Josh Brynes trade incumbent 3B Chase Headley and slide in Gyorko? Brynes has proved his willingness to trade young prospects (Anthony Rizzo), will he trade Gyorko? Will Gyorko play 2B with Headley staying at 3B? We will find out...
2. Rymer Lirano, OF, Opening Day Age: 21
Great combination of power and speed. Likely not a 30/30 type, but perhaps at his peak could hit 15-20 HRs and steal 40 bags. He has aggregately hit .296 and .280, respectively, in his last two minor league seasons, but he will have to reduce his strikeouts to hit for a similar average in the MLB. Liriano will miss the 2013 season with Tommy John surgery.
3. Max Fried, SP, Opening Day Age: 19
Fried was the first high school pitcher taken in the 2012 MLB Draft at #7 overall, and oozes with potential. A lefted-handed, lanky 6'4/185 lbs., Fried can hit mid 90's with his fastball and has potential for above-average off-spead pitches. His 17.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League represent a tiny sample size, but he missed bats (17:7 K:BB ratio) while inducing ground balls (2.78 GO/AO ratio). Excited to see what he can do in a full season next year. Fried could be the #1 prospect in the system after next season.
4. Austin Hedges, C, Opening Day Age: 20
Hedges was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 MLB Draft, obtaining a large signing bonus to lure him from his strong committment to UCLA. Scouts rave about Hedges 'MLB ready' defense, noting that his floor is likely as a defensive-minded MLB backup catcher. There was questions with his bat, but he has shown some decent pop with 10 HRs in 96 games in single A. If he can prove to have an average bat for a catcher, he will provide immense value in the MLB.
5. Robbie Erlin, SP, Opening Day Age: 22
Acquired with Joe Wieland in 2011 from the Texas Rangers for RP Mike Adams. The 5'11, 190 lbs., lefty sits in the low 90's, and attacks the strikezone. He was selected in the 3rd round of the 2009 MLB Draft out of Scotts Valley High School by the Rangers. He has put up a ridiculous 362 K:50 BB ratio in 306.2 innings in his minor league career. Erlin was limited to just 60.2 innings this season due to injury concerns of his oblique and elbow.
6. Joe Ross, SP, Opening Day Age: 19
Ross was chosen in the first round of the 2011 MLB Draft at #25 overall out of Bishop-O'Dowd High School. Younger brother of Oakland Athletic pitcher Tyson Ross, Joe profiles to be better than his older brother. Ross can hit the mid 90's on his fastball, but like fellow prospect Max Fried, he can only be evaluated on an extremely small sample size. In his 54.2 IP last season in the AZL, Signle A-, and Single A, Ross put up a 4.28 ERA with a 56:22 K:BB ratio and a 1.29 GO/AO ratio. Barring injuries, Ross should eclipse 100 IP in 2013, providing a better indicator if he can sustain his strong strikeout rate with an above average groundball rate. Like Fried, Ross could be a top 3 prospect by next season.
7. Walker Weickel, SP, Opening Day Age: 19
Weickel was selected in this years 2012 Draft as a supplemental first round pick (#55 overall), signing for 2 million dollars - twice the recommended value at slot (925 K). More data is needed to evaluate, but in his tiny 12 AZL innings he had 12:6 K:BB ratio and an impressive 3.11 GO/AO ratio. Weikel is another arm who may shoot up in the rankings by next year.
8. Donn Roach, SP, Opening Day Age: 23
Acquired from the Los Angeles Angels in 2012 with INF Alexi Amarista for RP Ernesto Frieri, Donn Roach is an intriguing prospect. Drafted in the 3rd round of 2010, the 6'1, 200 lb. right hander has produced outstanding ground ball rates.
2010: 53.2 IP, 6.04 ERA, 59:16 K:BB, 5.5 GO/AO
2011: 70.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 68:20 K:BB, 3.55 GO/AO
2012: 105.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 78:22 K:BB, 3.53 GO/AO
If Roach can maintain an average strikeout rate in combination with his very strong groundball rates, he will become a valueable pitcher for the Padres.
9. Keyvius Sampson, SP, Opening Day Age: 22
Sampson was drafted in the 4th round of the 2009 MLB Draft out of high school. After a dominant 2011 season (118 IP, 2.90 ERA, 143:49 K:BB ratio), Sampson's stock has fallen a bit after a lackluster 2012 season (122.1 IP, 5.00 ERA) in at AA San Antonio. His strikeout rate was still strong, however, with a 122:57 K:BB ratio. He does not profile as a ground-ball pitcher, with 2011 and 2012 respective GO/AO ratios of 0.72 and 0.88. His next season will be important to his long-term projection.
10. Zach Eflin, SP, Opening Day Age: 19
Eflin was a supplemental first round pick in this years 2012 MLB Draft, selected at #33 overall. At 6'4, 200 lbs., Eflin has a solid pitchers frame to grow in. He features a low 90's fastball, with an advanced changeup for his age. Eflin only threw 7.1 innings in the Arizona Rookie League, giving up 6 earned runs, while striking out 4 and walking 3. The placement at 15 is purely on his potential, as his data sample size is essentially worthless. Eflin will be another arm, like Fried, Ross, and Weickel, who could be a top 5 prospects by next year.
11. Matthew Wisler, SP, Opening Day Age: 20
Wisler was drafted in the 7th round of the 2011 MLB Draft, and completed his first full season in 2012 for the Single A Fort Wayne Tincaps. Wisler put up solid numbers - strong strikeout rate, walk rate, average GO/AO numbers. Most impressively, he only gave up 1 HR in his 114 IP. Wisler needs another strong year to legitimize his prospect status.
12. Adys Portillo, SP, Opening Day Age: 21
Another 2008 international free-agent signee, Portillo has had his ups and downs moving up the system. Bless with an upper 90's fastball, Portillo has always struggled with his command. Prior to his 2012 season in whiched he logged a 3.34 ERA, Portillo's previous low was a 4.78 in 2010. Though it is unlikely he will dramatically improve his control, if he can curb it some he may be able to turn into a Edinson Volquez -type pitcher.
13. Jonathan Galvez, 2B, Opening Day Age: 21
Signed as one of the highly regarded international free-agents in 2008, Galvez has a regarded bat. He has shown the ability to his for decent power, with above-average speed. Though he has hit for solid average for most his minor league career, his strikeout rates make it likely that he will never be a .300 hitter in the MLB. He put up solid numbers in AA San Antonio, known to be a pitchers-park. In 82 games, Galvez put up a triple slash line of .292/.364/.426, with 20 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HRs, and 12 SBs. There are questions of his ability to play a good 2B, but his bat will fit just fine.
14. Cory Spangenberg, 2B, Opening Day Age: 22
Spangenberg, the 10th overall pick in the 2011 draft, had a bit of a down season in 2012. Spangenberg signed quickly after his draft, and absolutely dominated Single A- in Eugene, putting up a triple slash line of .384/.545/.535. After moving up to Single A Lake Elsinore, Spangenberg struggled in comparison with a triple slash line of .286/.345/.419. Nonetheless, the Padres moved him up to high Single A + in Lake Elsinore for the 2012 season, where he struggled, putting up a triple slash line of .271/.324/.352. His ISO (Isolated Power, SLG%-AVG) was just 0.81, and he logged a 26:72 BB:K ratio. Spangenberg has plus speed, but he will have to improve his plate discipline should he become a viable second baseman for the Padres. This will be an important year for Spangenberg.
15. Matthew Andriese, SP, Opening Day Age: 23
Andriese was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2011 MLB Draft out of UC Riverside. Andriese has put up solid ground ball numbers (2.35 GO/AO in 41.2 IP in 2011; 1.75 GO/AO in 146 IP in 2012). In those 146 IP in 2012 for high Single A Lake Elsinore, Andriese logged a 3.58 ERA with a 131:38 K:BB ratio. If he continues to progress, he may be wearing a Padres uniform in late 2014.
16. Jace Peterson, SS, Opening Day Age: 22
Peterson, drafted as a supplemental 1st round pick in 2011 at #58 overall, profiles as the only legitimate SS prospect in the system. Peterson features good plate discipline (career 116:112 K:BB ratio), speed, and the ability to stay at SS long-term. Given his lack of power, his high OBP will likely drop as he reaches higher levels as more skilled pitchers attack the strikezone. However, if Peterson maintains his solid plate discipline, he could emerge as the Padres leadoff hitter in a couple years.
17. Edinson Rincon, OF, Opening Day Age: 22
Rincon was an international signee in 2007. Rincon was previously a third baseman, but was moved to the corner outfield due to his horrendous defense. After a superb offensive campaign in 2011 (.328/.393/.490 triple slash line), Rincon followed it up with a decent .291/.321/.413 triple slash line in AA San Antonio (pitchers park). Rincon has gap power, hits for a decent average, but there are long-term concerns about his plate discipline and defensive ability.
18. Kevin Quackenbush, RF, Opening Day Age: 24
Quackenbush has done nothing but dominate as a reliever. Drafted in the 8th round of the 2011 MLB Draft, Quackenbush was a closer in college, and the closer at all his stops of the three Single A teams (Eugene, Fort Wayne, and Lake Elsinore). In his two minor league seasons, Quackenbush has put up 141 K:32 BB in 99.2 IP. He is currently dominating the Arizona Fall League, with a 0.00 ERA in 8.1 IP, 13:2 K:BB. If he keeps up his success into the 2013 season, he could earn a call-up to the Padres at some point.
19. Jaff Decker, OF, Opening Day Age: 23
Decker, a supplemental first round pick in 2008 (#42 overall), has exhibited tremendous walking percentages, but has struggled with strikeouts that have subsequently affected his batting average as he has moved up the system. Since 2008, these have been Decker's batting averges: .343, .299, .262, .236, .201. These are his corresponding OBPs: .513, .442, .374, .373, .369. As much as he likes to walk, he likes to strikeout as well. He is what they call a 3TO player, or three true outcome player - walk, strikeout, or homerun. Part of his yearly decline can partly be attributed to injuries, so hopefully he can utilize his strong tools and become part of the Padres long-term plans.
20. Tommy Medica, 1B, Opening Day Age: 25
Medica, drafted in 14th round in the 2010 MLB Draft, has done nothing but hit in his short minor league career. However, his relatively old age compared to the league he has been playing in hurts his prospect stock. But you cannnot ignore his numbers - in 2011 his triple slash line across the AZL, A- and A was .293, .409, .493, with 31 doubles in 304 at bats. In 2012 his triple slash line in single A Lake Elsinore was .330/.406/.623, with 37 doubles, 5 triples, and 19 HRs in only 355 at bats. He absolutely crushed lefties this season, with a .448/.510/.977 in 87 at bats.
Honorable Mentions:
Matt Clark, 1B, Opening Day Age: 26
Cody Decker, 1B, Opening Day Age: 26
Burch Smith, SP, Opening Day Age: 23
Matt Stites, RP, Opening Day Age: 22
Frank Garces, SP, Opening Day Age: 23
Maxx Tissenbaum, 2B, Opening Day Age: 21
Donavan Tate, OF, Opening Day Age: 22
Travis Jankowski, OF, Opening Day Age: 21
Rodney Daal, C, Opening Day Age: 19
Jeremy Baltz, OF, Opening Day Age: 22
